Focus
Reports from SERI Quarterly, SERI's in-depth quarterly journal on the Korean and Northeast Asian economies
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October 2011 Global Liquidity Risk and Its Impact on Inflation
Tight supplies of agricultural and other commodities are making life difficult for Korea¡¯s consumers. In response, Korea needs to consider measures like gradually increasing utility prices, as well as fundamental structural improvements in the way it distributes and sells commodities. Some of these responses include better demand forecasting, more efficient retail and distribution, and diversification of import suppliers.

"International marriage" arranged between foreign brides and local grooms accounts for an ever growing share of Asia¡¯s marriage market. Most of the brides, however, come from the same few countries, meaning Asia¡¯s hopeful husbands will face increased competition in the future. If Asian countries hope to forestall a new generation of lifetime bachelors, it is critical that they first make social changes at home.

Ballooning US debt has made many nervous about the future of the dollar. China, as the main US creditor, has made overtures toward moving from the dollar as the world¡¯s reserve currency. Such moves, however, remain mostly in the realm of speculation, as the lack of attractive alternatives ensures that the dollar will remain the reserve currency of choice.

The history of Korea¡¯s soju industry furnishes a rare example of a natural experiment in brand loyalty and regional identity. The Korean government¡¯s mandatory local purchase policy, which anointed only one soju firm for each local market, ensured that local preferences persisted long after the policy was abolished. This paper proposes that soju purchases have become a way of asserting regional identity.

Korean firms are the clear front-runners in AMOLED, the advanced display technology for screens in smartphones, PCs and other hardware. Demand is rising for AMOLED panels, despite their higher cost compared to conventional LCDs, and they are attracting new competitors. New technologies will enable late comers to catch up faster. To stay in front, more R&D and a keen eye on consumer demand will be needed, as well as new products like AMOLED televisions.

Since the third quarter of 2008, when the global financial crisis erupted, US households have shed nearly a trillion dollars of debt to lower aggregate consumer debt to $11.6 trillion by the end of the third quarter of 2010. Much of the decline is in mortgage debt due to foreclosures and bankruptcies. Delinquencies and defaults have risen since 2008. How much further debt will decline before spending resumes is a key question.

Korea-Japan relations have undergone a stormy process over the past 100 years, but recent developments indicate a growing maturity. Much of this is due to Koreas growth into a healthy economy in its own right, as well as the growing prominence of China. Although historical issues and territorial antagonism continue to cause disputes, Korea-Japan relations are set to move from distrust towards cooperation and co-evolution on a range of issues.

From 2007-2009, the US experienced a devastating recession whose effects linger to this day. Efforts to stanch the bleeding through stimulus, however, have largely been futile. Previous efforts to correct prolonged economic stagnation during the Great Depression in the US, and the "Lost Decade" in Japan were largely failures, and the current stimulus measures in the US will likely end the same way. Governments thus should learn the lessons of history and allow the market to heal itself.