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Conflicting Views on Future Economic Conditions
No.634, Aug. 30, 2010
Entering 2010, the index of coincident indicators (net of trend)1 started to diverge from the index of composite leading indicators (in terms of year-on-year change). This has created conflicting views on future economic conditions. Some say that the Korean economy is about to slide,2 citing consecutive monthly declines in composite leading indicators (in terms of year-on-year change) from January through June this year. Others claim that the composite leading indicators' performance only amounts to technical drops after they made a fast and strong rebound thanks to emergency measures to fight off the global financial crisis. This paper intends to provide clarity to the current economic situation by comparing the recent trend in leading and coincident indicators with that of the past. It will also provide policy suggestions for stable and sustainable economic growth by reviewing the trend of components of each index and identifying the causes behind recent falls in the composite leading indicators.
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Weekly Focus: Household Debt Increased Sharply in the Second Quarter
Current Account Surplus Hits 16-month High in July
Major Events
Market Trends
Weekly Insight: Conflicting Views on Future Economic Conditions
 
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Aug. 30, 2010
No.634
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Weekly Focus: Retail Sales Continue to Rise in July
Listed Companies' Net Profit Doubles in the First Half
Major Events
Market Trends
Weekly Insight: Coping with Climate Change: Green Living
 
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Aug. 23, 2010
No.633
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Weekly Focus: Household Income Increases 7.7% in 2Q
Rate Hike Pushes up Time Deposits in July
Major Events
Market Trends
Weekly Insight: Cradle to Cradle: A New Paradigm for Environmental Protection
 
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Aug. 16, 2010
No.632
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Weekly Focus: Consumer Prices Rise 2.6% in July
Bank Profits Decline in the Second Quarter
Major Events
Market Trends
Weekly Insight: Imbalance in External Assets and Liabilities and Its Implications
 
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Aug. 9, 2010
No.631
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Weekly Focus: First Half of 2010 Posts a 7.6% Growth Rate in Real GDP
Consumer Sentiment Remains Robust in July
Major Events
Market Trends
Weekly Insight: Local Success in Emerging Markets: Fending Off Multinationals
 
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Aug. 2, 2010
No.630
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Weekly Focus: Korea Aims for Top Five Nations in IT Convergence
Hit Products of the First Half of 2010
Major Events
Market Trends
Weekly Insight: Solutions to Local Government Fiscal Crisis
 
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July 26, 2010
No.629
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Weekly Focus: Bank of Korea Raises 2010 Growth Forecast to 5.9%
Private Sector Employment on the Rise in June
Major Events
Market Trends
Weekly Insight: Korea¡¯s Higher Vulnerability in Foreign Exchange Compared to Stocks
 
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July 19, 2010
No.628
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Weekly Focus: Home Equity Loans Rise at Fastest Pace in 10 Months
FDI Falls 6.8% in the First Half
Major Events
Market Trends
Weekly Insight: New Business Opportunities in ¡°Slow¡± Trend
 
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July 12, 2010
No.627
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Weekly Focus: Home Equity Lending Rates Drop to Record Low Level
Industrial Production Increases for the 11th Straight Month
Major Events
Market Trends
Weekly Insight: Emission Credit Exchange: Its Meaning and Tasks Ahead
 
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July 5, 2010
No.626
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Weekly Focus: Government Plans to Gradually Normalize Its Economic Policy
Consumer Sentiment Improves for Two Straight Months
Major Events
Market Trends
Weekly Insight: Causes of Sluggish Construction Investment and Implications
 
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June 28, 2010
No.625
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